Tuesday, January 19, 2021

Super Bowl 53: Statistically Predicting the Winner

As the regular season is coming to an end and playoff predictions are flying around, I thought I’d pay homage to the founder of Lazy Fan Sports and use statistics to select my dark horse picks to win it all.

The Chiefs, Rams, Saints, and Chargers all look like true contenders but I wanted to find some other teams that could get it done.

So how did I achieve this superhuman feat?

It’s simple really, I took the past SB Champions’ defensive-adjusted value over average score from Football Outsiders, which goes all the way back to 1986. I then averaged that DVOA (defensive-adjusted value over average) score for the offence and defence as well as their average rank at the end of the season.

The results were ground-breaking.

My findings show that the average Super Bowl Champion is ranked 8th in both defensive and offensive DVOA. The average offence DVOA was 13% and the average defence DVOA was -8%.

With these findings now set as parameters, I was able to select my Super Bowl Champion.

Super Bowl 53

Super Bowl Prediction

Just before I break that down for you all though, here are the teams ranked 1-15 offensively:

  1. Kansas City Chiefs
  2. Los Angeles Rams
  3. Los Angeles Chargers
  4. New Orleans Saints
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers
  6. New England Patriots
  7. Green Bay Packers
  8. Carolina Panthers
  9. Denver Broncos
  10. Seattle Seahawks
  11. Atlanta Falcons
  12. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
  13. Indianapolis Colts
  14. New York Giants
  15. Cincinnati Bengals

Now we know the top offensive teams, we need to find out which of them lap over into having the top 15 defences in the NFL. That leaves us with 6:

  1. Los Angeles Rams
  2. Los Angeles Chargers
  3. New Orleans Saints
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers
  5. Denver Broncos
  6. Indianapolis Colts

From these remaining 6 teams (only remaining teams within one standard deviation of the average DVOA for offence and defence)  I was able to predict my Superbowl Champion.

Just before I give you my prediction, here is the team that finished 2nd in the analysis. Your potential Superbowl Champions are the Denver Broncos (Bronco Country Baby!).

oh and the actual Super Bowl Champions for 2019 will be the Pittsburgh Steelers.

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