Wednesday, October 21, 2020

NFL Week 3 early value looks

After another eventful and slightly unpredictable NFL weekend, it’s time to start looking ahead to the NFL Week 3 matchup to see where we can squeak out some value bets. We’ve not had a brilliant start to the season, but we have more data now so let’s see what kind of NFL odds we’ve got coming this week.


This is a very interesting one for me, but given the start the Jags have had they have the edge in this and are just a three point favourite. While the Dolphins looked better on offence in week 2, their defence is being torn to shreds on a regular basis.

If you’re not feeling the Minshew Mania and are just waiting for him to derail, the OU is set at about 45, so that’s great value there for a Dolphins team that hasn’t conceded less than 20 points since November 10th! In fact they’ve given up 30+ in 6 of their last 9 contests so that over is looking primed for success.

Kirk Cousins would have to improve massively in the NFL Week 3 matchup for the Vikings to even be close
Kirk Cousins would have to improve massively in the NFL Week 3 matchup for the Vikings to even be close


A game that looked pretty tasty before the season now looks a lot one-sided as the 2-0 Titans travel to the 0-2 Vikings. The Vikings loss to the Colts was a shocker, quite literally, and Tennessee is not the game they would’ve been looking at to get their season back on track.

The Titans themselves haven’t looked back to their dominant selves that went all the way to the AFC Championship game last season, but they are winning. They’re a 1.5 point favourite and that’s amazing value given the way the Vikings have started the season. 


Another tasty one that currently has the niners at only a 4 point favourite. Keep an eye on the injury wire this week with Saquon Barkley’s knee of key concern. While Garoppolo and Mostert would be big misses for San Francisco, missing Barkley would sink the Giants offence without a trace. 

This game is likely to trend in the niners direction in a hurry if Barkley is out so stay on top of this one. If Barkley has torn his ACL, as some reports are predicting, the Giants will be ripe for a number of longer term bets as well.


The spread on this will likely kill it, but the Colts are such huge favourites with the dumpster fire that’s the Jets right now. The Colts were upset in week 1 by the Jags, but bounced back with that impressive win in Minnesota. If you can get the Colts under an 8 point favourite I would take that all day long.

The Jets will likely be a punters best friend all season long as they look to be struggling under second-year head coach Adam Gase, and third-year QB Sam Darnold. With Le’Veon Bell on IR until at least week 5 they’ve lost their most explosive offensive playmaker. If they play a defence that can pressure Darnold it’s hard to see them winning many games.

NFL Week 3 won't get any easier for Sam Darnold
NFL Week 3 won’t get any easier for Sam Darnold

Rams @ Bills

This game is ripe for the plucking on the overs as well. It’s a tough one to call in terms of a winner this early in the campaign, but both offences have been firing and you’re currently looking at a points total of 46.5. The Bills and Rams combined for 68 points in week 2, and while they are facing arguably better defences, I don’t see a twenty point reduction in their scoring.

That’s it for Week 3, but stay tuned for more updates and spot bets as we get closer to kickoff, and remember to always shop around for the best prices because value is always king.

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