With draft night almost upon us, here are my five predictions for the big day. The things we think you’ll see in the first round on Thursday. Some you’re expecting, but some you may be a little surprised by.
Cardinals Draft Kyler Murray
It’s not really going out on a limb to suggest the Cardinals will take Kyler Murray, but it may not be the best move. Don’t get me wrong I think Murray will be a good NFL starter, but does he have the career Josh Rosen will have?
The danger with mobile quarterbacks is that once they get injured they’re never quite the same player. That said Murray will be exciting for the Cardinals offense and will give them a spark with his legs that Rosen just didn’t offer.
The Giants Will NOT Take Dwayne Haskins
In a move that will kick-start a few of our other predictions, the Giants will go DL with their first pick, probably Edge. Unless something crazy happens, the Raiders will have scooped up Josh Allen, so that leaves the Giants with Rashan Gary or Ed Oliver.
There are some questions over the college production of Gary, but he’s a physical freak who if he can get his motor right could be a great NFL player. That said history is littered with great pass-rushers who just never found how to run their motor well enough and flamed out.
The Reskins Will Trade Up To Take Dwayne Haskins
Despite the fact that we think the Buccs should move on from Jameis Winston the Washington Redskins will be the second team to address their quarterback issues. It seems likely that means the Skins have to move above the Dolphins at 13, the Bengals at 11, and the Broncos at 10.
That could cost them their second-round pick (number 46 overall) depending on how keen the Bills or Lions are to trade back and the value they place on the pick in relation to the pick value chart. But either way, the Redskins will move up.
The problem for the Redskins will be if other teams, like the Broncos or Bengals are thinking of moving up to get Haskins. This will not only drive up the cost of the move, but it will also mean they will have to trade up higher to be sure they don’t get jumped. This could be fun to watch.
The Broncos Will Take Drew Lock
With one of the most chaotic quarterback situations in the NFL, the Broncos will look to solidify the position with Drew Lock. The expectation is that Lock will sit behind new Broncos starter Joe Flacco (and his monster contract) for the next 3 seasons, and then take over the reins.
Lock has all of the physical attributes you look for in a franchise quarterback and can read the whole field. The problem is that he’s wildly inconsistent and needs time to develop before he sees the field. Stemming from poor footwork and mechanics this can likely be rectified by a few years of solid learning on the bench behind a veteran quarterback like Flacco.
The Patriots Will Acquire Josh Rosen on Draft night
The market for Rosen has been somewhat softer than expected. We think part of the reason for this is the depth of the 2020 quarterback class, and the fact that most of the teams who were bad last season, look like they’ll be bad again this season, so they’ll still have a high pick next year.
That opens the door for the Patriots to steal Josh Rosen from the Cardinals and, once again, get one over on the rest of the league.
Yes I know what you’re going to say, Rosen was horrible last year. But he will get to sit behind Brady for however many years he goes on for, and learn the system, learn what it takes to be a winning quarterback, and develop his game.
And when that waiting period is over, he’ll probably look like an absolute steal. Expect the Patriots to give up their second-rounder to get Rosen. We have a sneaky suspicion the Cards will look to save a little face and they’ll swap their second-rounder for the Patriots first, but don’t let them fool you. There’s only a one spot difference in those picks.
So that’s what we think is going to happen. Disagree? Let us know what you’re thinking.