Monday, May 27, 2024

Bears Vegas odds at 7.5 wins, so over or under?

After arguably the best draft of any team in the NFL the Bears Vegas odds win total has gone up by half a game to 7.5 for the 2021 season. For a team that won 8 games last term and drafted the second best quarterback in the draft, the improvement is pretty disrespectful.

But there’s a sure fire opportunity to make some money in this but is it with the over or under? And where does that leave the Bears in the NFC North?


Now while it’s clear that as Bears fans we’re thinking over, Vegas didn’t become Vegas by being wrong by much so let’s take a closer look at how the fixtures breakdown and whether there’s an edge to be found here.

Probable LossTough GamesProbable Win
(1) @ Rams(3) @ Browns(4) Lions
(6) Packers(5) @ Raiders(2) Bengals
(7) @ Bucs(8) 49ers(12) @ Lions
(11) Ravens(9) @ Steelers(15) Vikings
(14) @ Packers(13) Cardinals(17) Giants
(16) @ Seahawks(18) @ Vikings

So what we see is the Bears having 5 games we see as probable wins, 6 games as probable losses, and then the 6 tough games games in the middle. The questions come from the those tough games and whether the Bears can realistically swing half of them to take us to the over.

Now in 2020 only two of those teams made the playoffs. As we know Matt Nagy’s record against playoff teams is appalling at 5-13. While it’s not much better against teams with a winning record, 7-13, it is at least an improvement.


With the Browns coming off a high from last season and coming into the game a likely 1-1 this is the Bears chance to make a statement early in the season. With the likely starter being Dalton it will need the defence to step up, but it is winnable. Probability 45%

The game in Las Vegas is a very winnable game with Derek Carr not good enough to scare anyone. Josh Jacobs however is but he’ll be running behind a weaker line this year. Probability 62%

The San Francisco game is one of those games that make the Bears Vegas odds so tricky because it really could go either way based on who’s playing. With Fields playing the Bears have an edge, and if Trey Lance plays that edge is likely bigger. The niners do have an elite defence, but can they all be healthy come week 8? Plus the game is in Chicago, so the edge is definitely with the Bears. Probability 60%

Travelling to Pittsburgh is never easy, but if Big Ben isn’t playing this is an easy win. In fact if we take the last 6 games of last season after the Steelers were 11-0 this is still a probable win. But you can never entirely count out the Steelers. Probability 60%

Kyler Murray has new toys to play with but he still has to prove he can be genuinely elite. The Cards running game is a huge question, and while they’ve strengthened on defense, those corners are a question. Probability 55%

Week 18 at Minnesota. Always a tough divisional game this game may be about the playoffs never mind the Bears Vegas odds. If Fields is in by week 18 this is a 68% win, but with Dalton it’s closer to 55% in my estimation.

So where does that leave us. Well we here at The Ditka Digest have the over/under at 8.37. So not a mile over the Bears Vegas Odds, but it could get a bit nervous come the end of the season.

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